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Trump Leading In Latest Polls

02 Nov 2016

Asia: markets generally -1% after latest poll shows Trump leading. Overnight US stocks fell but Dow rallied back above 18,000 to halve the losses. Vix +9% surges on poll, but was above 20 at one stage. DXY falls nearly -1% and investors choose Gold and CHF safety. Data was better with ISM at 51.9 coming off better Chinese PMI numbers and Put/Call surges as investors rush to hedge. Bonds higher pushing yields down. Materials outperformed on USD weakness. Some analyst says start of 5~10% SPX correction. Volumes were up in the US. FOMC later and FB earnings too. Nikkei -1.9% coming off a Demark 13 buy exhaustion and USDJPY 103.8 hurts exporters. Materials outperform Telcos and Financials, uptrend support at 16,940 -1.5% lower. Shanghai -0.5% outperforming and New account by Chinese investors have surged past previous high. Chinese Property sales slowing as cooling measures take effect. Index still just below 3140 breakout. HK -1.3% and Financials take the market lower. Index remains in shallow downtrend range with lows at 22,730 getting close. Gold miners higher and Macau gives back some of yesterday's gains. Taiwan -1% with Semis leading following SOX. Taiwan remains a crowded trade for foreigners. TSMC -1% and foreign ownership starts to fall from record highs. Korea -1.2% with again Financials leading lower. Autos outperform on KRW 1147 weakness. Index testing 1985 200dma and needs to close above to see bounce. Currencies weaker with MXN -2% over the last 24 hours. Gold $1292 and Oil $46.30. Best Sectors Materials, Airlines and Staples Worst Sectors Financials, Energy and Tech.

U.S Equities: With the FBI re-opening of Hillary's email case, the disclosure of a federal investigation into the Clinton Foundation, and the acknowledgement that CNN gave the Democratic Nominee Debate Questions, the race for president is now a dead heat with seven days until election day.  While some polls have Trump marginally ahead, the path to the White House and the Election College still heavily favors Clinton.  Nonetheless, markets had widely assumed that a Clinton Victory was a done deal, but that started to change today.  The Mexican Peso probably remains the best Political Barometer as it fell another 1.7% and the Dollar (DXY -.7%) was weaker across the board.  The S&P futures came under heavy pressure midmorning, touching 2090 (-1.5%) before staging a small rally into the close.   Gold (+.84%) and Silver (+2.8%) were well bid throughout the day with Gold Miners finishing up 2.5%.  The VIX touched 21 intraday before ending at 18.56 (+8.8%).  After falling 15% in October, Biotechs got a reprieve as they rallied 1.25%.  Financials (-.4%) also held up well as a Trump Presidency would likely be less onerous.  REITS (-2.1%), Utils (-1.77%) and Telcos (-1.04%) led to the downside.  Market volumes (8.1b) were the best we've seen in a few months

Commodities: Oil extended losses from the lowest close in more than a month after weekly industry data showed U.S. crude stockpiles expanded, exacerbating an inventory glut. Gold rose for a fifth day to the highest level in almost a month as mounting anxiety ahead of next week’s U.S. election spurs investors to seek out haven assets, with latest polls showing that Hillary Clinton’s once-dominant lead over Donald Trump is withering. 

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