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Africa Market and Lombard Fund News


28 Jun 2016

Well, it looks like the English from middle England turned out to be more anti establishment than financial market could have expected. I believe Brexit will go down in history as the worlds biggest foreign policy failure and political miscalculation ..............not to mention that in the short term markets HATE surprises.

What we know we know:

1.) Don't underestimate Trump.  There is a growing global sense of nationalism that is stronger than common sense.

2.) UK needs new leadership....Probably a new election.

3.) the exit will probably take about two years. Economic impact will be delayed or at worst spread over this period

4.) Global central banks are preparing to defend markets i.e. delayed US rate rise, higher negative rates for Europe and more QE. - Swill central bank has already intervened......

5.) UK banks will move staff out of the UK; Asian companies also indicating that no new investment will take place for now and they will also consider a shift of operations into Europe

6.) Cameron will not initiate the exit.....he will wait for the new PM ( Poor guy - he is going to become the 'sell out' PM, when he cant fulfil any of the promises......)

7.) knock on effect to SA is 0.1% of GDP - This could be worse if the dollar rises with a flight to safety....

8.) Devaluation of the pound will hurt African exports from some countries that have stronger links with the UK.  Keyna has large (25%) export reliance on the UK......

What we know we don't know:

1.) does the UK keep the trade agreement with Europe?  If yes, then they will have to allow free movement of labour.....Which is what they were trying to stop by voting no.  If no, 50% of British exports will face duties....(out is out after all?)

2.) Scottish independence is back on the cards... If I consider the division of the vote - Scotland overwhelmingly wanted to stay - so maybe Cameron has destroyed two unions - not just one?

3.) Economic effect on Europe may be positive, as banks and other industries shift their production onto the mainland.

4.) Political effect - risk has increased, nationalist movements across Europe will be jumping up and down....

5.) The pound will need to weaken from last nights closing level....although there will be initial volatility (today's 10% down move), the delay in implementation will almost certainly boost UK exports in the short term, bringing some trade support to the currency and some short term demand for UK goods and services.

What we don't know we don't know:

 Of course this will be the wild card over the next few days, weeks and months to come.....

 Initial response of the Lombard Fund. 

Risk is up and we are not going back down until we have further clarity on the implications of the brexit.  Each position in the book will be considered on a fundamental level to understand its relative earnings effect from exposure to the UK and Europe. We will continue to invest in cash generative stable companies within our mandate and see volatility as a driver of opportunity and not fear.  As already indicated, Europe may actually benefit economically in the medium term from this move.  Also we do not underestimate the willingness of global central banks and governments to protect markets from shocks and volatility.....

 We will continue to update you in the weeks to come....

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